Market overview

Ammonia (NH3) is a gas made by combining nitrogen from air with hydrogen, usually from natural gas and in China often from coal. It is the base chemical for nitrogen fertilizers. It also feeds explosives, plastics, synthetic fibres, refrigeration and a growing fuel and hydrogen-carrier trade. Supply depends on gas cost, plant uptime and access to export routes.

The question this report answers
How large is the ammonia market, and how will gas costs, Gulf export disruption and low-carbon capacity change supply and prices to 2035?

Market Krystal preliminary estimate (2025)
Four publishers cluster at USD 82.6-83.3 bn (MarketsandMarkets, Fortune Business Insights, SNS Insider, IMARC). Five others span USD 64.5-235.1 bn. Two volume-based publishers sit near 194-199 Mt. Market Krystal multiplies the published 2025 volume of about 194-199 Mt (Mordor Intelligence, Expert Market Research) by a blended realised price of roughly USD 420-500 per tonne. That blend sits below Tampa contract levels because most ammonia is consumed on site, and it is anchored on the USGS 2025 Gulf Coast average of USD 450 per short ton. The range brackets the cluster of four publishers and treats the very low and very high estimates as scope differences. On this basis we use USD 80-100 bn. Confidence grade B: published estimates exist; the volume or price cross-check is partial.

Market dynamics
– Demand: Agriculture takes 78.76% of 2025 volume (Mordor Intelligence). In the US, about 88% of production goes to fertilizer (USGS). Power generation is the fastest-growing use at a 5.87% CAGR to 2031 (Mordor Intelligence).
– Supply: Main producers are CF Industries, Yara, Nutrien, Koch, QAFCO, SABIC, Fertiglobe, OCI, Acron and Togliattiazot, with China the largest national producer. USGS lists China at about 47 million tonnes (nitrogen content) and the US at about 14 million tonnes. The US had 38 plants in 2025 (USGS).
– Price and margin: Tampa settled USD 590/t CFR for October 2025 (Profercy) and reached USD 825/t in 2026 (Chemical Market Analytics). It then fell to USD 665/t for July (Chemical Market Analytics). Q3 2026 TTF averaged USD 18.1/MMBtu against Henry Hub at USD 2.9 (Yara), so European margins are squeezed.
– Regulation and substitution: EU CBAM takes full effect in 2026 (ICIS). Hormuz disruption has pushed buyers toward secure suppliers. There is no substitute for ammonia-based nitrogen in fertilizer. Low-carbon ammonia and ammonia fuel are the main new demand.

Key figures at a glance (third-party, cited)
– Published 2025 market value is USD 82.56 bn, rising to USD 102.74 bn by 2031 at a 3.71% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets)
– Global volume was 193.69 Mt in 2025, forecast to reach 216.72 Mt by 2031 at a 1.89% CAGR. Asia-Pacific held 39.16% of volume (Mordor Intelligence)
– Gross ammonia production was 4,854 thousand tons in H1 2026, at 98% of available ammonia capacity (CF Industries)
– US plants ran at about 80% of rated capacity in 2025. The US had 38 plants in 19 states (USGS)
– The Middle East exported 4.28 Mt of ammonia in 2025, from global trade of 17.73 Mt (S&P Global Energy CERA)
– Blue Point One in Louisiana will have an average annual capacity of 1.4 million metric tons and is expected to begin production in 2029 (CF Industries)

Recent developments among key stakeholders
– Oct 2026: Yara raised its European ammonia curtailment run rate to 270,000 tons and said it can curtail up to 1 million tons a year if margins stay negative. It expects about USD 450 million of higher gas costs in Q4 2026 (Yara)
– Oct 2026: Mitsubishi Gas Chemical began taking ammonia from INPEX's Kashiwazaki Hydrogen Park blue ammonia demonstration plant on 22 October. The CO2 is injected into a depleted gas reservoir. The ammonia will serve the company's Niigata plants and nearby customers (Mitsubishi Gas Chemical)
– Sep 2026: Mitsui Chemicals, NEDO and partners reached 85% ammonia co-firing on a heat-input basis in a naphtha cracking test furnace. They plan to extend ammonia to wall burners and pursue 100% firing (Mitsui Chemicals)
– Aug 2026: CF Industries reported H1 2026 ammonia production at 98% of available capacity and said Blue Point One had received its permits. Construction started in August. Groundbreaking with JERA and Mitsui took place on 26 August 2026 (CF Industries)
– Jul 2026: Fertiglobe reported Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA up 111% to USD 371 million. Urea utilization reached 92% in H1 2026, with record rates in Egypt and Algeria despite UAE export constraints (Fertiglobe)
– Jul 2026: Yara announced the acquisition of Gulf Coast Ammonia to lower production cost and diversify away from European energy prices. Closing is subject to regulatory approvals (Yara)

What this means for the market
Buyers in Europe, India and South Korea face a market where Gulf exports are unreliable and European gas sets a high cost floor. They should diversify across the US Gulf Coast, Trinidad, North Africa and Canada, and use index-linked contracts with volume flexibility. US producers with Henry Hub gas hold the widest margins. European and Japanese users of ammonia fuel and hydrogen need to plan for CBAM-adjusted, low-carbon supply from 2029 onward. Fertilizer and phosphate makers are the most exposed to price swings.

How published estimates compare
Published values range from USD 64.5 bn to USD 235.1 bn for the same year because publishers differ on scope, such as fertilizer only versus all derivatives, and on price basis. Four publishers cluster at USD 82.6-83.3 bn, while the volume-based publishers (Mordor Intelligence, Expert Market Research) agree on about 194-199 Mt. Market Krystal builds the value from that volume and a blended realised price anchored on USGS and Tampa data, which gives USD 80-100 bn.

Strategic scenarios to 2047
– Base: Volume grows by about 2% a year, in line with the 1.89-1.90% CAGR published by Mordor Intelligence and Expert Market Research. Gulf exports recover only partly. Europe keeps curtailing ammonia when gas is expensive and imports more. US Gulf Coast and North African supply gain share. Blue Point One starts in 2029 and low-carbon volumes grow slowly. Prices stay above pre-2026 levels and follow gas.
– Constrained supply: A renewed Hormuz closure or further plant damage removes Gulf exports again, and European gas stays high. Tampa-type benchmarks spike well above the 2026 high of USD 825/t. Importers in Asia and Africa compete for US, Caribbean and North African cargoes. Governments widen export restrictions and fertilizer affordability falls.
– Technology transition: Blue and green ammonia plants, carbon capture, ammonia cracking and fuel uses scale faster than expected. Premiums form for low-carbon ammonia under CBAM and Japanese and Korean co-firing programmes. Older European and coal-based capacity loses ground. Ammonia shipping and power demand move from pilots to contracted volumes in the 2030s.
The swing factor for ammonia is Gulf export access and European gas prices. Signposts: Hormuz shipping status, TTF and Henry Hub gas prices, Tampa monthly settlements, European ammonia curtailments, Blue Point One and other low-carbon final investment decisions, CBAM rules, India tender volumes, ammonia co-firing and shipping orders.

What this report delivers
Annual volume (tonnes) and value (USD) for 2026-2035, segmented by application: Urea, Ammonium nitrate, Ammonium phosphates (MAP and DAP), Nitric acid, Ammonium sulfate, Direct-application anhydrous ammonia, Industrial chemical intermediates (caprolactam, nylon, acrylonitrile), Refrigeration, Fuel and hydrogen carrier; end use: Agriculture, Mining and explosives, Chemicals, plastics and synthetic fibres, Textiles, Pharmaceuticals, Industrial refrigeration, Power generation, Marine fuel, Water treatment and NOx control; region: Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, South America. Each segment is backed by a producer capacity map, trade data and the Market Krystal estimate log, with scenarios to 2047 and strategic recommendations.