Market overview

Gallium (CAS 7440-55-3) is the metal behind gallium arsenide and gallium nitride chips used in RF, power electronics, LEDs and lasers. China produces about 99% of primary gallium, and its export controls since 2023 have made gallium a strategic material.

The question this report answers
What happens to gallium supply and prices when China’s suspension expires in November 2026, and can non-Chinese supply scale?

Market Krystal preliminary estimate (2025)
USGS: about 900 t of primary gallium in 2025. At USD 300-580/kg (Chinese domestic to US import price), we estimate USD 270-520 mn. Confidence grade A: two or more independent sources agree, or the range rests on government or company data.

Market dynamics
– Demand: GaN and GaAs chips, LEDs
– Supply: China about 99% of primary output
– Price and margin: US import price up about 30% in 2025
– Regulation and policy: Chinese export licensing; US ban suspension to Nov 2026

Key figures at a glance (third-party, cited)
– World primary gallium production: 848 t (2024) and about 900 t (2025), of which China about 99% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026)
– US import unit value: USD 277/kg (2021) rising to about USD 580/kg (2025e) (USGS)
– China controlled gallium exports from Aug 2023 and banned exports to the US in Dec 2024; the US ban is suspended until 27 Nov 2026, but licensing remains (USGS, Engineering News)

Recent developments among key stakeholders
– Nov 2025: China suspended its ban on gallium exports to the US until 27 Nov 2026; licensing controls remain (Engineering News)
– Nov 2025: a USD 29.9 mn Defense Production Act award went to a gallium and scandium recovery facility in Louisiana (USGS)

What this means for the market
The November 2026 expiry of China’s suspension is a near-term risk. Western recovery projects are small; buyers need stockpiles and contracts.

How published estimates compare
Most market reports value downstream GaN and GaAs devices. Market Krystal works from USGS production data and import prices.

Strategic scenarios to 2047
– Base: China keeps licensing exports while Western recovery projects slowly add supply; prices stay elevated but stable.
– Constrained supply: China re-imposes bans after the November 2026 suspension expires, causing price spikes and allocation.
– Technology transition: recycling, alternative materials (silicon photonics, SiC) and new non-China refineries reduce dependence by the 2040s.
The swing factor for Gallium is the November 2026 expiry of China’s suspension. Signposts: Chinese export licences, US-China trade talks, Western recovery projects, defence stockpiling.

What this report delivers
Annual volume (tonnes) and value (USD) for 2026-2035, segmented by grade: low purity (4N), high purity (6N-7N); application: GaN power and RF, GaAs RF and optoelectronics, LEDs, magnets and alloys; region: China, Japan, US, Europe, Korea. Each segment is backed by a producer capacity table, price benchmarks for 2020-2025 by grade and region, trade-flow analysis and a supplier risk map. Companies assessed include Chinese alumina-linked producers, Dowa, Sumitomo Chemical, 5N Plus, Rio Tinto (recovery projects), Nyrstar. The 2036-2047 outlook uses three explicit scenarios (base, constrained supply and technology transition) rather than a single extrapolated curve.

Who uses this report
Compound-semiconductor makers, defence supply chains, metals traders and investors.

Why our approach is evidence-based
Most CAS-level market listings publish a single number with no audit trail, and we regularly find figures that contradict their own growth rates or exceed the size of the market they sit inside. Market Krystal works the other way round. We start from physical evidence: plant capacities, production and trade data, company disclosures, regulatory texts and price records. We build volume and price separately and only then compute value. Every third-party figure is cited, every Market Krystal estimate is labelled with its method and a confidence grade, and conflicts between sources are shown rather than hidden. Confidence grades: A = two or more independent sources agree, or government or company data; B = one published estimate checked against volumes or prices; C = no reliable published figure, so the range is built from stated assumptions and narrowed in the full report.

Methodology and delivery
Prepared by the Market Krystal Chemicals Research Team. Each report is built around the buyer’s question: after purchase, a short scope confirmation fixes the priority regions, companies and applications, and the report is delivered within 5-7 business days with the Excel model behind every estimate, so buyers can audit and change the assumptions.

The purchased delivery includes the PDF report, Excel datasets and customization around the buyer’s priority region, company set, application or commercial question.

What this research answers

The study connects production routes, named suppliers, applications, regional demand, trade, pricing drivers and commercial opportunities for this CAS number. Detailed estimates and company analysis remain inside the purchased report.