Market overview

Cobalt is a hard, silvery-blue metal. It goes into lithium-ion battery cathodes, aerospace and defence superalloys, hard metals, magnets and catalysts. Almost all of it is a by-product of copper and nickel mining. Supply therefore follows Congolese copper-belt output, Indonesian nickel refining and Chinese chemical processing, and is now also shaped by state export controls.

The question this report answers
How far will Congolese export quotas, Indonesian supply growth and the shift to cobalt-light battery chemistries change cobalt availability and prices for buyers through 2035?

Market Krystal preliminary estimate (2025)
Four publishers cluster at USD 18.3-18.7 bn for 2025 (Grand View, Fortune, Straits, Emergen), with CAGRs of 4.1-6.8%. Market Research Future publishes USD 22.5 bn and 24Chemical Research USD 12.2 bn. Market Krystal values cobalt metal content at 213-240 kt, from Cobalt Institute demand and refined-output data, multiplied by USD 32,000-40,000 per tonne. That price band is Market Krystal's own indicative range for the 2025 average, set between the February 2025 low near USD 21,000 per tonne and the higher levels reached from the fourth quarter. Published estimates sit at roughly double this range, so the check is partial. On this basis we use USD 6.8-9.6 bn. Confidence grade B: published estimates exist; the volume or price cross-check is partial.

Market dynamics
– Demand: Demand is expected to rise 8.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with EV demand adding 14.9 kt in 2026 (Cobalt Institute). Portable electronics rose to 93 kt and superalloys to 20 kt in 2025 (Cobalt Institute).
– Supply: CMOC is the largest producer, at 117.5 kt and a 39.5% global share in 2025 (Cobalt Institute). Glencore produced 33.5 kt in the DRC (11.3% share), and ERG is the third major (Cobalt Institute). The DRC supplied about 73% of 2025 mine output and Indonesia 14% (USGS).
– Price and margin: LME cobalt (Fastmarkets MB) closed near USD 46,892 per tonne on 20-21 October 2026 (LME). CMOC reported a first-half 2026 average of USD 25.56 per lb, up 94% year on year (CMOC). Its cobalt gross margin was 83.16% in that half (CMOC).
– Regulation and substitution: The DRC quota is 96,600 t a year, split 87,000 t to producers and 9,600 t held by ARECOMS (Benchmark Minerals). LFP held over 80% of China's EV share through 2025 and early 2026, which limits cobalt intensity (TSM Hub).

Key figures at a glance (third-party, cited)
– Global cobalt market valued at USD 18.7 bn in 2025, rising to USD 27.2 bn by 2033 at a 4.1% CAGR. (Grand View Research)
– Total supply was 295 kt in 2025, with mined output flat at 270 kt and refined output 240 kt; China held 79% of refining. (Cobalt Institute)
– 2026 global mine supply is estimated at 225 kt, down from 267 kt in 2025, mainly because DRC miners cut output. (Cobalt Institute)
– World mine production was 310,000 t in 2025 (estimate). (USGS)
– CMOC produced 99,694 t of contained cobalt in the first nine months of 2026, up 13.32%, while sales fell 75.19% to 12,661 t. (CMOC)
– Glencore's expected DRC export allocation is 22.8 kt for 2026 (including 2025 carryover) and 18.8 kt for 2027. (Glencore)

Recent developments among key stakeholders
– Oct 2026: CMOC's third-quarter report showed nine-month output of 99,694 t, with third-quarter sales of 6,934 t above first-half sales of 5,727 t. Shipments depend on DRC quota implementation and logistics (CMOC)
– Oct 2026: Huayou Cobalt joined Indonesia's president at the Weda Bay Industrial Park on 8 October for the launch of 11 downstream nickel projects worth about US$10.2 billion. Four entered commercial operation and seven began construction. The event also marked Indonesia's first export of EV batteries. Huayou's site there covers HF wet smelting, nickel-cobalt refining and ternary precursor production (Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt)
– Oct 2026: BMW Group is recovering cobalt, nickel and lithium from used high-voltage batteries through a Europe-wide partnership with SK tes, in place since November 2024. The closed loop is set to expand to North America in 2026. BMW is also preparing Gen6 battery series production at five sites on three continents (BMW Group)
– Sep 2026: China's MIIT and six other ministries issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the new battery industry, with 2030 growth targets. It calls for an extended producer responsibility system for spent battery recycling and for lithium-led products alongside sodium-ion and flow batteries (MIIT (China))
– May 2026: The Cobalt Institute's 2025 market report said the market moved from structural oversupply to an ex-DRC deficit, with refined output up 5% to 240 kt. (Cobalt Institute)
– Apr 2026: Glencore's first-quarter cobalt output fell 39% to 5,800 t, a deliberate cut to avoid producing material it cannot export under its 22,800 t quota for 2026. (Glencore)

What this means for the market
Cobalt availability outside the DRC is tighter than mine output suggests. Congolese quotas, not mine capacity, set how much metal reaches buyers through 2027. Battery-material makers and refiners in China, Japan, Korea and Europe face feedstock gaps and price volatility, so they should lock in term supply and consider recycled and Indonesian sources. Superalloy and defence buyers hold less price flexibility and need earlier contracting. Producers with stored inventory, notably CMOC and Glencore, gain from any quota easing.

How published estimates compare
Publishers mostly agree on a 2025 value of USD 18.3-18.7 bn, but their CAGRs range from 4.1% to 6.8%, and the outliers are Market Research Future (USD 22.5 bn) and 24Chemical Research (USD 12.2 bn). Public pages rarely state what product scope the figure covers, and volume-based publishers also differ, from 217.9 kt (Expert Market Research) to 241.3 kt (IMARC). Market Krystal instead values cobalt metal content at reporter-grade prices, so its range sits below the publisher cluster and moves with price rather than with a fixed growth rate.

Strategic scenarios to 2047
– Base: DRC quotas hold through 2027 and are then eased in steps. Demand keeps growing on EV volume and superalloy strength, but LFP and high-nickel chemistries cut cobalt per vehicle. Indonesian and recycled supply expand, and the market stays broadly balanced with prices well above the 2024-25 lows but volatile to 2047.
– Constrained supply: Quotas are extended or tightened beyond 2027, and other producer states copy the model. Indonesian ramp-up is slowed by cost or sulphur supply. Ex-DRC deficits persist, stockpiling by governments grows, and refiners in China and Europe compete for limited hydroxide.
– Technology transition: LFP, sodium-ion and solid-state batteries cut cobalt use in batteries faster than expected, and recycling covers a growing share of feedstock. Superalloys, defence and magnets become the core of demand. Surplus returns once quotas lapse and prices fall back toward the historical range.
The swing factor for cobalt is DRC quota policy and its enforcement. Signposts: ARECOMS quota changes, CMOC and Glencore quarterly production and sales, Indonesian HPAL output, Fastmarkets standard-grade and hydroxide payables, LFP share of Chinese EV sales, US and Chinese stockpile purchases, EU and Chinese recycling rules.

What this report delivers
Annual volume (tonnes) and value (USD) for 2026-2035, segmented by application: Battery cathode materials (NMC, NCA), Lithium cobalt oxide (portable electronics), Superalloys, Hard metals and cutting tools, Magnets, Catalysts, pigments and other chemicals; end use: Electric vehicles, Consumer electronics, Aerospace and defence, Industrial machinery and tooling, Energy storage, Chemicals and refining; region: China, Rest of Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, India), North America, Europe, DRC and rest of Africa, Rest of world. Each segment is backed by a producer capacity map, trade data and the Market Krystal estimate log, with scenarios to 2047 and strategic recommendations.