Market overview

Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM, CAS 75-01-4) is made from ethylene and chlorine via ethylene dichloride and is used almost entirely to make PVC. Its economics depend on ethylene and chlorine costs, which is why Europe’s high energy prices are pushing chlor-vinyl capacity closures while US and Asian producers export into the gap.

The question this report answers
How will VCM capacity closures in Europe and growth in Asia change trade and margins?

Market Krystal preliminary estimate (2025)
GMI’s USD 91 bn is implausible. Assuming about 45-50 Mt of VCM at USD 600-800/t, we estimate USD 25-40 bn (largely captive). Confidence grade B: one published estimate, checked against volumes or prices.

Market dynamics
– Demand: PVC for construction pipes and profiles
– Supply: integrated chlor-vinyl producers; Dow closing Schkopau
– Price and margin: ethylene and chlorine costs
– Regulation: EU PVC and additive scrutiny

Key figures at a glance (third-party, cited)
– Global Market Insights values VCM at USD 91 bn (2024), reaching USD 187.8 bn by 2034 at 7.4% CAGR; building and construction 60.9% of end use (Global Market Insights)
– Jul 2025: Dow announced closure of its Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl assets in Germany by Q4 2027 (Chemical Processing)

Recent developments among key stakeholders
– Jul 2025: Dow announced it will shut its basic siloxanes plant at Barry, UK (mid-2026), and its Boehlen ethylene cracker and Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl assets in Germany (Q4 2027), affecting about 800 jobs (Chemical Processing)
– 2025: LyondellBasell entered exclusive talks to sell four European olefin/polyolefin plants to AEQUITA; ExxonMobil (Gravenchon), TotalEnergies (Antwerp) and Eni (Brindisi, Priolo) announced cracker closures (Hydrocarbon Processing)

What this means for the market
European capacity is leaving the market. Customers must qualify replacement supply, and producers outside Europe are bidding for the freed-up volume.

How published estimates compare
Global Market Insights attributes USD 87.9 bn to the PVC application alone, a value that should be tested against VCM tonnage and price, because an intermediate’s value cannot exceed what its single main outlet supports. Market Krystal sizes VCM in tonnes and links it to PVC, ethylene and chlorine balances.

Strategic scenarios to 2047
– Base: demand follows GDP, construction and population; China and the Middle East add capacity while Europe rationalises on energy costs.
– Constrained supply: energy shocks, carbon prices and closures in Europe tighten regional supply and widen price spreads between regions.
– Technology transition: low-carbon routes (green hydrogen, electrified crackers, bio-feedstocks, CO2 capture) change cost curves and favour early movers.
The swing factor for Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) is PVC demand and European chlor-vinyl closures. Signposts: European closure announcements, EU CBAM scope, Chinese capacity additions, energy prices.

What this report delivers
Annual volume (tonnes) and value (USD) for 2026-2035, segmented by route: ethylene-based (balanced EDC), acetylene/carbide (China); application: PVC (suspension, emulsion), copolymers; region: China, North America, Europe, Middle East, India. Each segment is backed by a producer capacity table, price benchmarks for 2020-2025 by grade and region, trade-flow analysis and a supplier risk map. Companies assessed include Westlake, Formosa Plastics, Shin-Etsu Chemical, OxyChem, INEOS, Reliance Industries, Chinese carbide-route producers. The 2036-2047 outlook uses three explicit scenarios (base, constrained supply and technology transition) rather than a single extrapolated curve.

Who uses this report
Producers, large buyers, commodity traders and chemical-sector investors.

Why our approach is evidence-based
Most CAS-level market listings publish a single number with no audit trail, and we regularly find figures that contradict their own growth rates or exceed the size of the market they sit inside. Market Krystal works the other way round. We start from physical evidence: plant capacities, production and trade data, company disclosures, regulatory texts and price records. We build volume and price separately and only then compute value. Every third-party figure is cited, every Market Krystal estimate is labelled with its method and a confidence grade, and conflicts between sources are shown rather than hidden. Confidence grades: A = two or more independent sources agree, or government or company data; B = one published estimate checked against volumes or prices; C = no reliable published figure, so the range is built from stated assumptions and narrowed in the full report.

Methodology and delivery
Prepared by the Market Krystal Chemicals Research Team. Each report is built around the buyer’s question: after purchase, a short scope confirmation fixes the priority regions, companies and applications, and the report is delivered within 5-7 business days with the Excel model behind every estimate, so buyers can audit and change the assumptions.

The purchased delivery includes the PDF report, Excel datasets and customization around the buyer’s priority region, company set, application or commercial question.

What this research answers

The study connects production routes, named suppliers, applications, regional demand, trade, pricing drivers and commercial opportunities for this CAS number. Detailed estimates and company analysis remain inside the purchased report.